Do you feel like the miners have already bounced too far for you to get in?

JNUG was just @ $6.50-$7 when my models gave the most recent buy signal.  Now JNUG is $9.50 and you might be thinking "I just can't buy it after it has gone up so much in terms of percent".

It happens to a lot of people.  In fact, most people.  This is because they do not have any signposts to navigate by and they don't feel comfortable going by gut feel.  If this is you, please consider the data shown below.  Since the peak in 2011, we have gotten what I think is very likely to be 5 full waves down.  Wave 5 was a falling wedge which ended with blue 5 in a 3 wave throwunder.  Blue 4 was a GOE (Galaxy On End is my own mnemonic).  For my part, I see that the bottom of blue 5 could have been slightly lower in order to make wave 5 = length of wave 1 (that's what the green bars are showing), but it if headed up from here it would be close enough in my book.

While there are countless possibilities, there are only two broadly accepted schools of thought on the gold wave count: EWI and Avi.  Avi thinks we have one more lower low coming but that the GLD rally has some time left in it.  EWI thinks the GLD rally has already begun and that it will be big, perhaps all the way back up to $135.

Regardless, GLD has barely moved off the deck so far.  It has moved so little from the bottom that only an EWer would even call it a bottom.  Everyone else would call it the most recent bottom. From blue 5, we got a motive wave up and then a pull back to kiss the lower rail from above.  That backtest held thus setting us up for the recent bull moves.

Right here, right now is when smart people see that support has arrived.  They either being to cost average in on dips or they wait for a bit dip that is 38.2% or higher and then they go in heavy.  But this is not the time to be sitting on the sidelines with respect to the miners.  Or if you prefer, buy some ultra silver (USLV).  It will be moving up quickly when the bid finally hits.

Bottom line: you haven't missed jack shit.  The party is just getting started.  Buy the dip, don't buy more than you are comfortable with at once.  Buying a little and then adding to it as it moves up is always a confidence building strategy.  And whatever you do, pay no attention to the fed, market pundits, CNBC or any other financial propaganda outlets.  The "news" doesn't matter.  Only the wave count matters.