[DJIA] update

I've mentioned DJIA in a few past posts and provided high level charts in this one and this one but the backlink shows the prior near term chart model:


 
 
Actual is below.  Blue 2 above is black 2 below.  Blue 2 suggested a wave 2 peak in the DJIA 17400 region.  Actual blue 2 was ~17520.  Model then unambiguously expected a massive and rapid selloff where people who know how to count waves would be buying UVXY.  Why there?  Because it was expected to be a 3rd wave.  Please note that it was not:

• ...because of some misguided view of "fundamentals".  They are unknown and unknowable by the market.  They are too complex.  They are knowable but not to the mind of humans.  This is why experts come and go.  The waves happen to align with their "fundamental story" for awhile.  Our liberal hero-worship society needs icons and so the media trots them out and the masses are made to believe they are geniuses.  
• Later on, after they have bought into their own bullshit so badly, they ignore the fact that the market is disagreeing with them.  Their pride forces them to go back out on CNBC again and again to assure everyone who listened to them not to worry because the market is just being finicky. Each time they do it, the market goes away from them even further.  Whether I'm talking about Abby Joseph Cohen, Meredith Whitney, or about 500 male "experts" over the last decade, including Alan Greenspan, the story is always the same.  They end up with egg on their faces wondering WTF happened.  
• ...because of what my gut told me.
• ...because I'm from the future or am just too smart.

In fact, it didn't even have to fall at all.  But it did fall per the model simply because that is what the odds suggested was the most likely herd movement and in this case the herd took the most likely path.  If you have been reading this blog for any length of time you will clearly understand this truth by now simply by the hundreds of clear examples I have provided in real time.

In any case, the odds now suggest that wave 1/5 is done and 2 of 5 is done or nearly so and that probably this week the markets will see a lower low.  Once that happens, I expect a big vee, perhaps deep vee retracement into red 2.  Maybe it will be because the federal reserve begins to panic and intervene in markets.  Maybe it will be because China begins buying our shares.  If it does happen, I could go out on CNBC and crow around about it a bit maybe.  I could talk about this fundamental and that one and talk about the good earnings report over here and the stock buyback over there.  But, like ads on a website, it would all just be noise.  It would be a disservice to people who actually think that markets generate new wealth when in fact they are nothing but casinos with enlightened people who are aware of the odds taking money from those who don't.