Crude Oil [CFD]

I found a reasonable but not great online chart for crude oil.  The model below uses this source for the bare chart since StrategyDesk seems incapable of it.  If this model is correct, the rapid dip that occurred which caused me to make a commodities bottoming call in this post will turn out to just be wave 3.  It would indeed be most satisfying from an EW perspective if we did an a-b-c to blue 4 and then had one more wave down into blue 5/red C as shown.  A throw under could momentarily take crude oil to $25 per bbl in that event.

After that I see electric cars becoming popular at a faster rate because gas is going to sky rocket in the USA to reach European prices.  I'm talking $8/gallon.  I hope you really don't believe that deflation is going to last forever.  It NEVER does because the intrinsic value of paper currency is zero.  If something is intrinsically worth zero it will eventually be treated as being worth zero. 

This is coming after the deflation finishes (probably after congress has taken control of the federal reserve) and our first indication will be higher highs in food, clothing, gasoline and everything else.  I plan on buying a Nissan Leaf into the final collapse.  As oil falls and people think that it will eventually go to zero or nearly so and then stay down there for a long time, low gas prices will allow whiners to fret about "range anxiety" with all-electric cars.  This is what is keeping their prices down so low right now

Well, when gas is $8 a gallon people will stop complaining about that and simply feel fortunate that they can afford to drive at all in their electric car.  I'm pricing Leafs out right now. You can get a used top of the line 2013 model with the 6.6kW charger for ~13k.  These were going for $32k in 2013 plus tax and then the feds gave away $7k for buying green.  Still, it was at least $25k if not $27 out of pocket for the vehicle to whoever was stupid enough to pay that much.

These cars now have ~20k miles on them.  Nobody wants them because gas is still cheap on a relative basis.  Thus, depreciation has been very rapid.  And this is for a vehicle without an internal combustion  engine which are prone to abuse.  And transmissions?  On electrics?  Basically, there are forward and reverse gears, the simplest possible tranny.  The electric motor makes them appear to have continuously variable trannies but that is a function of motor physics, not some fancy tranny tech.  Motors develop 100% torque at 0 RPM.  Bottom line, the only weak link in these things is the battery and the range and if your commute is a normal sub 25miles in each direction each day, the round trip commute will be within range of a single charge.  So that leaves the batteries.  While they are getting better, the are still a weak link.  But they are not so weak as to be a show stopper, especially if gas goes to $8/gal in the US.

Once oil begins to climb people will again be paying up for these simply to escape high fuel costs.

Note: everyone is expecting the USO chart to go below red A.   When I see that I get nervous that the market is going to do something to avoid all those hunters lined up waiting for the herd to come into the clearing.  Look at the 3 momentary dips that marked the last bottom.  While not up-sloping in nature like those from 2009,  the recent dip was also accompanies by 3 unicorn tails.  I don't know if it will mean anything but if the chart goes up from here and does not stop after 3 waves, we have to begin thinking that my recent commodities bottom call might have been the bottom.