[ABX] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.




My proprietary WX count served me well again it seems as that was in fact a bottom.  And while this will no doubt continue to be a nice trading bounce, the real question is whether this will be the bottom.  The conservative thing to do is to give the current trend the benefit of the doubt.  This stops us from getting all emotional and excited at the very real prospects staring us in the face here.

Namely, that we are some place very close to the bottom of a 5th wave which began all the way up in the low $20s.  Again, that has been the 5th wave of a monster bear market that saw ABX collapse from $56 down to $6.  I hope that the enormity of this is not escaping my readers given the absolutely irrefutable success I have shown is possible with EW.  This collapse from $56 has come in 5 clear waves and now below we are seeing that 5 clear waves are done or nearly done for the 5th of that larger motive sequence.

Additionally, we have a very nice HT in the form of black 4 staring us in the face.  I don't know what else people want.  Wherever this bottoms, and it may have just done so a few days back, the target will be at least $14 as that is the level of the prior 4th.  That's well over a double from here if you just played the dead simple, buy and hold and don't trade at all game.  I highly recommend this for most people as few have time, energy, patience and other characteristics that help one successfully trade something like this.

While I do show that this tops out in the $7.50-$8.50 range before heading down to $5, that is out of deference to Avi's model and to my own WX theory.  But keep in mind, under this theory, wedges are 3rds or Cs.  So that could turn out to be the C wave of Avi's wave 2 count.  In other words, it could be the bottom.

Now if this sounds wishy washy as in, "OK genius, stocks can go up or down, thanks a boatload for nothing", then pay attention to this following bit because it is critical in understanding: We take this 5 waves at a time.  By the count below, the recent pullback was a 4th wave which retraced the 3rd wave up.  If this count is right then we will get one more motive wave up to black 5 and then a 3 wave move back down.  But if this is really a corrective wave instead because black 1-2-3 is really a-b-c, then the recent low won't hold and you will know we have lost it if this goes below $6.40.  That will tell us that it was likely a retracement wave and not motive.

But if it turns up from here, hits lime 1 and then retraces into lime 2 then the odds are very high that lime 3 OR C awaits us higher up.  When we get there we makes the same observation: will it stop after 5-3-5 (which would be the case in the model above where red 4 causes the wave to go down one final time) or will it create 5-3-5-3-5 in which case something much more bullish is certainly upon us