[AA] update

In looking at the backlink I think that my model is just a bit too tortured to continue being my primary.  It does not change my outlook that AA is heading to $14 in the near term but it does affect what could come after that.

Here's what to look for: a 3 wave move up (made up of 5-3-5) to the $14 region instead of a 5 wave move.  Also, heavy resistance at the falling blue channel line.  If we don't see these things then I will be quick to change my count but if we do then people should take it as a warning into 2016.

If Alcoa is going to do this it will probably smash my recent commodities bottoming call.  In the event that we see this happening, keep in mind: if you don't like to play the short side of things, CASH is an investment too.   Imagine being able to swoop in with as little as a few thousand dollars after AA hits $2, oil is at $25, etc.  If the red path happens below then keep in mind that this is certainly a 5th of 4 playing out because we can see the big HT from 2000-2007.  So everything from 2007 to now is part of the final 5th wave now and 1 of 5 of 5 is likely already complete under this model.