Monday, August 31, 2015

Why is the market suddenly so nervous? [$TNX.X]

In the backlink I gave the higher level model for TNX (10 year tres rates):

 

 Zooming in on just the unicorn tail, here is the low level count.  So we are either doing some kind of complex wave 4 lie a HT or flat or expanded flat OR this will move up quickly into 3 of 3.  The market freak out last week was accompanied by a rapid reversal of interest rates from a falling to a rising trend.  At present we do not have 5 waves up.
The market knows this could still possibly just be an upward correction on falling rates or some kind of sideways movement.  But once 5 up are seen and then an a-b-c back to the level of the prior 4th then I expect the markets to get very panicky as wave 3 up forms.   The reason is simple:   These wall st geniuses have had fed air cover on low margin rates for so long now that they actually have come to believe that the nearly free use of money is their holy birthright.  As such, they have taken full advantage of it and levered to the hilt, all the while laughing at people who actually have to do productive labor for a living.  Higher cost of borrowed margin money puts an end to their easy profits.

But who can blame them???  It is just human nature to be opportunistic.  If the current set of criminals abandoned their posts because they developed some moral resolve then someone else would step up and do the deed.  Bottom line: if you have a corrupt system you are a fool not to expect massive corruption.

But here is the really sad part.  Wall St. workers are not stupid.  In fact, they are some of the best and brightest we have.  They could all be doing useful economic work right now as doctors and engineers and big thinkers.  They could be adding to society instead of parasitically feeding off it like a giant vampire squid.

Instead, they saw the path to riches far beyond what they deserved to receive by the sweat of their brows and they took it.  Is that stupid?  I think not.  Something for nothing whenever possible is just human nature. 

George W Bush said wall st got drunk which caused the problem during his reign of terror.  I say emphatically that they were sober the entire time.  They wasted not one second with drunkenness, stupidity, clueless-ness, bad mistakes or any of the other labels that people who don't see what is happening call it.

Folks, when the con man rips you off effectively and gets away with it only to laugh at you behind your back for being a gullible Mark or Patsy, is he drunk?  Stupid?  Clueless?  Sorry?  Did he make a mistake?

The answers to those questions, in order are no, no, no, no, and Hell NO. 

Did anyone apologize for what happened and vow never to do it again? NO. 
Did masses of co-conspirators get rounded up, tried and jailed?  Not hardly.
Did thousands of them collective abscond with hundreds of billions of dollars only to live the rest of their life in kingly leisure?  Ummm, yeah, they did.


So who is stupid, them or us?  Who is clueless?  Hint: not them and to be fair about it, not me either.  I've called a spade a spade from day one on this blog.  The global debt Ponzi is a Madoffian style con game, plain and simple.  One day we are going to get the wake up call, folks and it will probably happen so quickly that very few will ever see it coming.

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