In the backlink I was waffling around a bit talking about the various things that could happen but not really pointing to a primary model. One of the things that I mentioned was Avi's model for the metals. I wrote, "...the recent bottom was about $12.20. Now, according to Avi
what finished, worst case, was 3 of 3 of 5. That would leave 4 of 3 and
then 5 of 3 and then 4 and then 5 before finally ending the 2011 bear.
Best case (for longs) what just finished according to Avi was 4 and now
we dive into 5."
By that description alone it seems Avi's model could be playing out in silver. IFF we get another big wave down to the $12 range then this is clearly a trading buy based on Avi's model because it would indicate that 5 of 3 (and thus 3) is now complete. Remember, the tell for this is if it is 5 waves down. Then the sell would be a 5-3-5 back up to the level of the prior 4th which we now know is the $15.60 level at blue 4. Then get the H E double toothpicks out and let red 5 take us to lower lows (although not by very much IMO. The volatility here is ridiculous with 33% up and down every few days.
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