[TMV] update

Back on January 27th of this year I posted for the first time ever on TMV which is essentially a leveraged bet on rising interest rates.  At the time, TMV was trading for $25.72 when my model suggested a bottom was very near for interest rates.  Here is the top level chart from that post.




In fact I was so bold as to write, "If I had to make an exact call based on zooming in on this chart I would estimate that 5 of 5 of 5 will probably occur by the end of this week, next Monday latest, and that the bottom will be in the $22.50 range."

Both my time frame and price range proved to be pretty accurate as you can see from the zoom in of that time period below.



 Months later, the chart finished a rising wedge and has pulled back more than 61.8% which is typically the max pullback I like to see in a new bull market.  So it's crunch time for this model.  I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt because of the gap fill shown below but if it goes down past that gap then the last low will count as 3 down and the recent rising wedge will be 4.  In that case we will be working on 5 down, not 2 down.  Anytime you get a rising wedge as the lead off into a new bull you have to suspect that it was actually a 4th and not a leading diagonal 1st.

In any case, this needs to reverse upward almost immediately from here or the odds rise rapidly that the top count will bust.  There is also the nonzero chance that after such a long bear market in interest rates that we will get the inclining double bottom that I call inverse owl ears.  If this is the case it will likely be in 5 waves down (i.e motive) because it will be a failed 5th.