Wednesday, August 19, 2015

[DJIA] update

Seems like DJIA is taking 2' from the backlink.  That chart is reproduced below.




Per below, DJIA is struggling to maintain that lower rail.  It's not over yet but the fat lady is coming out of the background noise and her voice is now at least discernibly there.



Zooming way in, I have the following model.  It seems to be setting us up for 3 of 3 down which should have the power to break the lower rail.  The smart money piles into UVXY into the close with tight stops on it for the following AM.  The expectation would be for a gap down AM in the DJIA on Thursday which could be a good deal more extreme than portrayed by the blue line.  That would be the first real sign of herd nervous in a long, long time and not something that chart watchers and sentiment watchers should ignore. 

We'll have to wait to see how the last half of trading plays out to see if we end up with the expected 5-3-5 to the level of the prior 4th which is shown below on the DJIA 15 minute chart.





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