Bought more [JNUG] in the extended trade @ $10.30

In this post I was selling JNUG and buying UVXY because according to CWT wedges are 3s or Cs.  Well, the herd seems to have decided that it was a 3 and thus put in a small 4 and then a large 5.  But instead of panicking to buy, I presented this model which suggested the next move would likely be down, perhaps way down:




But then I was looking at the data a bit more this AM using the chart below which included the extended trade and I came up with this model as something to look for.  Again, this is my technique of drive for show but putt for dough, especially useful when the swing can be 25% in a day!  At this point I just felt that if we got a 3 wave pullback to the 50 fib of the move which also happened to fill a gap that this trinity of support would be worth trading to the upside IFF it would happen.



While I didn't catch the exact bottom due to not being able to sit in front of the screen, today's bottom was actually $9.93.  Note in the above screen cap, the 50 fib was $9.94...

Looking at the recent action in finer detail we have the model below which essentially says that the original model was likely correct, we are still working on C of 4, but that it will be a double top or more likely Declining Double Top (DDT) per the red models.  The blue model, which I count as possible but far less likely (else I would not be buying more into the extended trade...) would indicate that the 5th and likely final wave down for JNUG had begun.  Thus, my stops for the whole load of JNUG are at $9.92. 




Yes it could gap down and screw me but something that tells me it likely won't is the part circled in blue.  When I see these they often turn out to behave like HTs.  In other words, penultimate.  Which in this case would be a B wave.  This is the first time I have ever discussed these formations in my blog but trust me, there are many pattern matching visualizations that I have picked up over the years that are proprietary to me.  This one always reminds me of a galaxy on edge and so the picture below is what comes to mind when I see them.



In any case, it's not part of EW so tomorrow will tell how I do on this trade.  But if this goes up just 5 small waves and forms a DDT then I will have to suspect that wave 4 for JNUG has formed and to expect lower lows.  Conversely, if this gaps up tomorrow and then closes significantly past
$12.20 then I will begin to believe that something larger could be in play with a growing chance that GLD has already hit a significant bottom and is now on the way up to $130-$140.  If that is what is happening you can only imagine what that would mean for JNUG.  After all, my long standing target for GDXJ of $18 (1/10th the peak) was actually hit already (below).  Still, this could easily turn into an owl with lower lows possible per Avi's model so this is no time for complacency.