Monday, July 13, 2015

[PAAS] update

I was hoping for a near term bottom in the backlink but it didn't happen.  Below is the model from that post.  After W3 it expected a bounce to test the falling wedge from below and then one lower low of 5 wave, probably bottoming in the low 8s.  That is the red model which was my primary at that time.



I modified the model slightly to account for recent charting action.  It still suggests a falling wedge is bottoming.  It might have done so late last week or it could be that the move to $7.80 was just 1 of 5.  But soon enough these shares will bottom and then reverse upward strongly.



Sometimes the high level model is useful  in these  cases.  Per below, I model everything that has played out since the 2008 peak to have been a 3-3-5 correction. In other words an expanded flat correction.  If I'm right, blue 2 will be bottoming very soon and then we should see another big move up to a higher high.  A move simply back up to $40 here would be a 5 bagger. 

It is also possible that the near term bottom is only 3 of 5 down.  I do think we should find at least some kind of support at the current price point because of the red support line.  The actual chart is kissing it almost exactly right now.  Even a small bounce to $12 is a 50% move at this point.  One thing is for certain, we are a lot closer to a bottom than to a top.  Institutional traders will be looking for an entry point in metals and miners, not reasons to sell.  The time for selling was long ago.

It will not be very much longer until con men are made to stop laughing at the paper-infested, derivative-controlled joke which the commodities markets have devolved into.  Metals will once again be treated by the herd as the true store of economic value that they in fact are.  JP Morgan will not be mocked forever!  Gold is money and nothing else is.  OK silver too.   Gold and silver are money, paper currency is just a sneaky taxation scheme.


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