Tuesday, July 21, 2015

[JNUG] update

In the backlink I admitted buying JNUG during extended trading after its calamitous one day plunge of 36%  yesterday.  Today I sold half at $9 for a tidy one day gain.  I'll keep the other half for the likely ride up to $10.  The model below is not listed in the backlink but for now it has become my top model.  In short, I think that after such a wild collapse that we will likely get some kind of double bottom, perhaps an inclining one, before people begin to venture back in here.  I mean, 36 pct lost yesterday and down 13 pct the day before?  That's fracking serious!  And since most "investors" don't know what stops are or how to use them a lot of people at this entire collapse or were chased out at the bottom.

In any case, if we see 5 waves up we will know this model is wrong and that we should buy the subsequent a-b-c pullback.  One indication that the reversal is in would be a large gap up at the opening bell that takes it about the level of the prior 4th.  I would personally buy the first pullback of any kind if it gapped up like that and then set tight stops.

But if we see a measured a-b-c move up to the $10 ish level and then 5 waves down about the same size as blue 1 then there is a good chance that a big rally is pending there.

Now then, if she breaks down below red two near the open tomorrow then that is a near term sell signal so you now know where your EW-defined stops should go.  But then start looking for that next entry point because it would likely means that red 1 is really blue4.  So then expect 5 waves down to form blue 5 down to maybe $6.80-$6.90.

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