[HUI] update - Avi's model is looking better and better...

I've been talking about the EW interpretation differences between EWI and Avi Gilburt both in terms of S+P500 and gold/miners for some time now and I have to say that the recent breakdown of the H+S neckline on HUI should have served as a medium term warning for all metals and miners.  Recall that the target for this kind of breakdown is NLABDP - HOH.  In other words, price at breakdown point - height of head.

The height of head is the top of head - neckline price when head peaked.

Top of head =212
Neckline at top of head = 152
Thus HOH= 212-152=60

Since NLBDP=157 and HOH=60, target is 97.  Interestingly, that is just about where another big wave down would throw under a large falling wedge. 

Such a large wedge would signal to me (under my personal CWT) that the whole collapse from 2011 is the C wave pointed to by Avi's current model, a portion of which I have cut and pasted below. 




So re-read Avi's accompanying article from mid June and notice his price target for HUI: $100-$125.  HUI has now put in a lower low than Q4 2014.  This lends credence to his model.  Also, look at the long term MACD and RSI.  People fucking hate gold like it was poison!  Note Avi's comments in his article about how on 2 people out of 700 thought his prediction could ever happen.  Avi has been right enough times with his EW analysis that you can't just dismiss him out of hand like he was some kind of know-nothing loser.  So I view all of this as extreme negative sentiment that will, sooner than many think possible, begin to  reverse and move back up.  People HATE gold and silver right now and I expect this hate to continue as the price bottoms and then moves up.  Initially the herd will just think "well, time to sell gold and silver again" and then the short trade will blow up in their faces in some dramatic way and everyone will begin to get religion about honest money again.

That last 20-40 points of HUI collapse could come pretty quickly folks.  If you see this play out do not be scared to buy.  The fact that it was predicted by EW should be your courage.  The fact that RSI and MACD are in the dirt should tell you that there is blood in the streets of Metal and Miner city.  Buy when there is blood in the streets!  This fake money system is losing control over the world.  The average guy is finally getting tired of it.  In this article, one Chinese market analysts said, “The market has failed... It’s distorted because we keep changing the rules as we play the game.”.  Well changing the rules like that is totally liberal behavior.  Conservatives write down the rules and then stick by them no matter if it goes against them.  The people are beginning to realize that the liberals are running a con game and when they lose faith in the con, it's over.   What most people don't understand is that market's haven't failed AT ALL.  Markets are behaving perfectly normally given that they are operating under a fraudulent money supply.  Take away the ability of everyone to leverage up (AKA fractional reserve banking) and guess what?  The price reverts to the mean (after an undershoot of course!).

The beginning of the end of the global fake money system is when real money, gold, begins to regain respect in the world among the people.  That is coming folks.  It will be evident within 6-9 months but it seems we have one more good sized wave down to stay out of the way of before the reversal begins.  At least that's what Avi's wave count is telling us and I can't find any flaw with it (something I have been saying for quite some time in these pages...).

One more thing: what happens in China is very important the world given that they make everything we consume.  Right now, the Chinese government is in panic trying to prop up their stock markets, even allowing people to pledge their homes as margin collateral (talk about fucking insane...).  That is pure desperation there folks and when these people are finally relieved of their real property by the pump and dump system, those people will be rioting and crying "unfair" (yes, China is full of liberals too...).  This could be the final straw that forces Chinese government to implement economic reforms, one of which could be some kind of new link between China's gold supply and it's currently unbacked fake money, the Renminbi AKA Yuan.  Not because they would want to, mind you, but rather because a hoard of pissed off wildebeests would be threatening to trample the leaders under and the only way to regain confidence would be to make concrete steps toward the de-leverage-ifcation of their pump and dump system.  Some kind of gold backing would immediately do exactly that.