First post on Ocean Rig [ORIG]

DRYS, a crap company I have posted many times about, was at least smart enough to acquire a big chunk of Ocean Rig, a real business that makes profit, while DRYS had purchasing power a few years back.  DRYS probably has negative value but Ocean Rig has value and is selling very, very cheap right now.  In fact, those who use "fundamentals" for trading purposes are probably pulling their hair out right now wondering how something that is profitable with admittedly high debt but also a fair amount of cash could possibly be selling at the deflated metrics you see below.  You might laugh at forward PEs since they are all based on fantasy.  But trailing PE is a real PE.  They booked the profit.  This might be one of the lowest trailing PEs I have ever seen!  Also PS and PB of 0.28 and 0.1_fracking_7???  These are ridiculously low numbers that say the company is going BK even though it makes a profit.

 










Furthermore, ORIG has an incredible forward dividend yield of 18.6% and a payout ratio that is sub 100.  In other words, they are paying divvies out of real earnings.

So if these "value metrics" actually had any effect on share price, how did they get so distorted and low?  Well, maybe there are some skeletons in the closet.  But if that is the case then why did Zacks give it a #1 rating?  Zacks is usually good about ferreting out the hidden dirt in the balance sheet.

So maybe, just maybe, the shares actually have a value that is mainly driven by emotions!  Maybe the herd is just running away blindly, on emotion. And if this is the case then we should see this in the wave count. 

Well, per below, after seeing a big 4th wave complete in later 2013, I now count 5 clear waves down.   If my count is correct, this two year wipe out is now at or very, very, very near completion.  Weeks not months, if even weeks.  Days more likely.  The minimum bounce target here is $9.50 but I suspect that if commodity price increases begin to be seen then we could see this take off big time.  After all, Avi thinks gold is putting in a long term bottom.

Strong buy on ORIG at the current price.

Initial stops at $4.10 just in case the recent bottom was only 3 of 5 instead of 5 of 5.