Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Zerohedge via GATA: government has taken control of commodities market using derivatives.

GATA is a total gold bug even though they try to be facts based.  By that I mean they don't understand wave theory and so they can't understand why gold isn't 30,000/ozt already.  In the long run they will be right.  Fiat currency will fail and gold will still be money, probably the only real money.  But ridiculous situations can go on for a long, long time before they collapse.  Zero Hedge also tries to report facts but again have no concept of wave theory of markets.  They think they know the fundamentals about everything and are thus often wrong about everything in the short term.  Over the long term they too will likely be correct.

Still, I thought that this article was interesting as it attempts to explain how the con men are playing this game.   In short, leverage.  Just take out several trillion in leveraged derivatives in the direction you want markets to go and hope that the herd is, well, herded in the hoped direction by these signals.  Again, if the herd doesn't want to play along then the game will be exposed, it will collapse and it will be game over.  And at some point that is exactly what will likely happen.  But the con men continue to be able to placate the masses with subsidized healthcare (recent supreme ct ruling which changes a law outside of congress, something that is totally illegal and even farcical ["words no longer have meaning"] according to Judge Scalia who is now openly mocking SCOTUS as a political support organization), mandatory $15 minimum wage in some major cities and states, etc.  In other words, the low end of the spectrum is hurting so throw them a bone so that they don't revolt and they keep on supporting socialism.

Whether or not people understand what is happening, the USA is dividing against itself internally and conservative - liberal battle lines are being drawn.  The fallout is going to be major with a high chance of some kind of de-unification of these 50 states.  I know this sounds ridiculous right now, pretty much like all of my opinions tend to sound at first listen.  But I do not write these things lightly and I firmly believe that there are credible if still unconfirmed EW models which support them.  When it happens will have a lot to do with stock market performance.   The stock market is nothing if not a huge societal mood indicator.  If the stock markets begin to tank per Prechter's models then bad, bad things will accompany it.  Prechter's model is still my primary model for stocks while Avi's model is my primary model for metals.  What happens over the next month could change that.  Avi's calling this pullback 4 of 3.  If it bottoms per his model and then goes to a higher high then I will have to strongly reconsider my opinion on the stock markets.

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