[UVXY] update

In the backlink I modeled wave 1 up as being complete and my model suggested that traders wait for the dip to buy.  Below is the model from that post and it pretty clearly expected an immediate pullback to the $39 level.




Here is the current snapshot.  As modeled we did get a pullback to around the expected level.  It just barely undershot the 50 fib and if that is all the lower it goes then I will call it a bullish move.  Usually after such a long sell off you can end up with a deep vee 2nd. 

That still might happen here because I really don't see a B wave in the area of the green circle that I was expecting.  So this could bounce tomorrow AM, kiss the 38.2 from below and then head down to fill the gap at $37.  We should know the answer by early morning.  If this is headed lower it will amble up into the 38.2 but if the bottom of wave 2 is already in then I would expect a rapid move up almost from the open.  A gap up would be appropriate in that case as well because this would be a 3rd wave in the making.

In any case, I bought this dip in the extended trade and if I don't see what I want to see tomorrow AM I will probably dump it again and then wait for wave 2 to fully express itself.