[$TNX.X] update

In the backlink my model suggest a high probability of a small pullback and then a higher high.  But even though the wave surged strongly it did not create a higher high and this is where I again have to remind to drive for show but putt for dough.  Generally when a breakout is in process it does not go up to the brink; instead it powers to a higher high before the momentum is broken by a weekend.  Because of this I think there is a now an even or better chance that we will see something like below.  This is not EW theory.  This is trading instinct.  It also bothers me that we got such a shallow retracement, not even a 38.2.  The odds are good that this will be a flat correction, 3-3-5.  It could also be expanded flat, also 3-3-5.  Time will very quickly tell but this kind of move could give market cover for a rally into the 4th of July holiday break so be careful about getting too bearish unless something about the technicals tells us that "it's different this time".  Holidays generally have a positive trading bias.