[GDXJ] big picture

-on virtual soap box-
Having a long term outlook on things and making long term predictions is all well and good but even if the long term outlook turns out to be correct, there can be many a slip twixt cup and lip over the short and medium term.  People with long term outlooks for higher gold and silver have been crying for higher prices every single day since late 2011 and all that they have received is a falling market. 

While I have zero doubt that the long term future for gold and silver priced in dollars is up this has nothing to do with gold and silver and everything to do with the fraudulent nature of paper money.  I don't think gold will be up in 10 or 20 years, I know it will be simply because the global monetary system is tightly linked.  People think that if Europe goes under then the dollar will get stronger but they forget all the dollar denominated derivatives that are in play.  They make the global financial system one big house of cards.  The dollar might get stronger short term but with Europe or Japan or China in collapse then US corporations will not be far behind and then it will all slide over the edge.  Maybe they can scam it along for a few more years but when all the boomers leave the work force, stop contributing to productivity and instead become a burden on society, that's when the system will collapse under the weight of all the fraudulent promises that have been made to these people and in fact to everyone who thinks government owes them a living.

So my long term view is that anyone 50 years old or younger should ditch the 401k at the soonest opportunity (i.e. the next big layoff), pay the taxes due on that money and in addition eat the tax penalty for early withdrawal from the system.  Give unto Caesar what is Caesar's and then be done with the SOB by moving into physical gold and silver bullion coins over a span of time.  Pay off your debt (which is basically voluntary self-enslavement to Caesar) and then live debt free; paygo is the only way to go. 

Once you have made these changes, never, ever trust government for anything again.  Not for food or water or shelter or healthcare and certainly not for leadership and moral guidance!  If you are not dependent on them, they cannot let you down.
-off virtual soap box-

Below is the 5 year chart of the junior miners.  It has been all doom and gloom during this time and to be honest, more downside is quite possible.  That big HT circled in red is certainly an important 4th wave in this downward series.  So we are working on the late stages of either a 3rd of 5 or 5 of 5.  I stated a long time ago that these crashes often take back 90% of the value from the peak and the in the case of GDXJ - something with no time/options value in it - that would be around $18.  That's just an observation, not even a guideline and certainly not a rule.  It's only offered in the name of "don't act surprised if...".

The waves within the blue circle seem to have a 3 wave vibe about them which is why I suspect that we could still be trapped in a falling wedge in GDXJ.  The movement of the next few days will be crucial.  Oftentimes what we see right here is an attempt to break out the top rail as shown in red which is rejected.  Then you either get a move down to center channel before the next bounce or a move to below the lower rail (blue channel).  In the blue case there are a couple variables that I won't spend time on right now but the bounce does not have to be as dramatic as shown.  In the red case, once the top rail is broken out it tends to be quicker but perhaps not as long lasting.

Zooming into the blue circle, I expect a rally that kisses the top rail.  From there it can either gap up and out per the green but IMO more than likely to take the red back down to center channel where another decision will have to be made by the herd whether to finish off the falling wedge per blue or bounce off mid channel and then break out the top rail. For JNUG, the red path would be a move from Friday's close of 20.46 to around $24.  If this is going to be the case, JNUG should rally nearly from the opening bell on Monday.  But if we do see this and there is no gap above the upper rail but instead a kiss from below, GTFO folks because it will represent another declining double top, another lower high.