Sunday, May 17, 2015

Netflix [NFLX] is a ridiculous bubble stock

Nobody knows when a bubble will pop but Neflix is the poster child for a bubble stock which I model as being at or very near a significant peak.  In other words, I think it's time to begin shorting this madness.  The first real sign that the share are going to plummet should be the breakdown of the top rail.  The next big sign of trouble will be the break below the lower rail.




































If any stock proves that Wall St valuations are meaningless, NFLX does.  Check out the dot bomb valuations on this baby.  Price to book of 6 is astronomical right along with a PE of 159.  But the real problem here is the price to book of 18.63.  NFLX is not doing rocket science.  Thus it makes no fundamental sense to bid this up to more than 18 times its book value.  But since the market has done this, perhaps the real thing that makes no sense is to have any belief whatsoever in "fundamentals".

This thing is full of leveraged momo traders who will run out at the first opportunity.

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