[LL] update

At the backlink I was bullish on LL but of course, using EW-defined stops. I got taken out and it has been trending lower since.  As you can see from the red line below, it has broken the support line that has been in place since 2009 and is now backtesting it from below.  I would love to see one more big collapsed down to $16 in order to make 5 waves down coming off the triangle at $33.

However, I'm not so sure it will happen.  This thing is so loaded up with shorts right now that it would not take much to set off a buying panic.  There are 3 counts that I see possible here:

1) LL is right at or very near finishing WC and now another multi year rally begins because
      a) gamblers get some indication that LL will not BK and
      b) cost push inflation begins to show up in some of the numbers.  That would be good for commodity prices (and wood is a commodity).

2) LL is at or nearly done with W3 and soon it should rally to $32 (quite a nice % rise from current price of $22.12...) simply on short covering and without any real good news before one final pounding to a new low that is lower than 2009 low (i.e. the chart reveals itself to have been a mania).

3) Now working on 5 of 5 of 5 of A which should finish in the $16-$18 range and then will rally to $60 for wave B before collapse into wave C in 2017 with every other stock and bond on the planet.

Note that all of the above predict some kind of bounce "soon".  A good way to look at it is this IMO: below that red line means stay away unless and until we see a proper wave count collapse to the $16-18 range.  Above that red line likely suggests that lots of short covering can drive the price much higher even in the absence of great news.