Finally caught a bit of time for more gold chart study [ABX]

The new job is super technical, super diverse in information that needs to be absorbed and super aggressive in expectations.  In other words, a welcome challenge.  However, because of this I just have not had time to look at charts in the multidimensional way that I like to.  But since I am highly focused on trying to play the coming massive bounce in miners I carved out time today to go back over my notes, prior posts, and current chart.  As usual, my focus is in determining the risks associated with a given bet.  What I see as a major risk is a potential final sell off to really capitulate the M+M longs in the next 2 months.

EWI is saying we are in an a-b-c gold bounce right now but nothing that has been happening in the gold and silver charts looks all that motive to me and, while hopeful that they would be right, I'm now beginning to lean toward the opinion that they are in fact wrong.  It would not be the first time that I have disagreed with them.  Early on in my following of them, they won most of these arguments so I started getting the feeling that it was dumb to argue with them.   More of late, I have been winning the debates.  I also know that the clairvoyance itself of EW counters itself comes and goes in waves and I have observed it in myself as well.  Sometimes I can casually look at a chart and the clear and obvious wave count jumps out at me, and then that count plays out almost perfectly. Other times, it's like I have never seen a chart before and I have to aggravate to get any kind of count and then the correctness falls dramatically and I get stopped out way too often (at a small "ante" loss each time mind you).

EWI thinks that the M+M bust since 2011 was just A of C and that the A wave is done and we are working on a big B bounce right now.  I think the decline since 2011 has been too powerful for that to be the case.  I think the 90% decline of GDXJ during that time suggests that the recent selling cannot just be the A wave.  If so, what happens during C, does GDXJ go negative?  EWI is looking at the price action of gold and silver only, they never mention anything about the miners, only mentioning that some will go BK during the final wave.  But it more seems that the entire mining industry would collapse to nothing at their expected $700-$900 gold price.

Because of these reasons, I think that the next big rally for M+M will not be a "B" wave, but rather a new bull market.  In other words, I'm thinking Avi will turn out to be right here.  But we never did get down to Avi's "95 to 105" GLD target.  Additionally, the bounce since the bottom has been corrective and the big drop leading to the bounce has always smelled like a 3rd (3 of 5) to me.  So the implication is that ever thing since Dec 2014 was a 4th of 5 wave and wave 5 of 5 down plays out over the next few months.

This is my current working theory (again) and is largely driven by my W3 indicator as shown on Barrick Gold (ABX).  Here is the backlink and below is the chart I gave there.  As you can see from that model, I believed at that time that there was one more wave down coming, again based in large part on my proprietary W3 indicator.  But then EWI called a bottom in gold and silver and we did begin to get some recovery so I wondered if I was wrong.  W3, after all, is not part of the original EW principle.




Below is the current 240 minute zoom in.   Blue 1 below corresponds to red 1 above. I think everything since the Dec W3 low was likely a 3-3-5 wave which just peaked and that is a corrective wave known as flat correction.  I will quickly change my tune if this falls back to around $12.40 and then reverses upward to a higher high because that would represent a 5 wave move up and a 3 wave pullback and then a higher high into wave 3 or C up.

I have tightened my stops way up on JNUG and I suggest everyone use similar caution.  Now then, if I am right about this then the final drop to ~8 (five waves down is the real thing to look for of course) will be a major bottom and the minimum bounce will be to the $14 range from there and that would be major percentage gains in the largest gold miners.  The juniors (GDXJ) should see $18 or less in that case and again, major percentage gains should follow.  We should know very very soon which way this is going but the winners will be those who were patient, who used stops at the right places to mitigate risk, and who waited for EW-defined entry points before putting cash into the bet.