The red or green paths are still both possible but each day that goes by the herd has to decide whether to extend the falling wedge (which is still possible) or to finally be done with it after all of this punishment. Extending this wedge will be difficult at this point so I am on the lookout for either a sharp and final dip to $8 before breaking back upward sharply (red model) or a breakout as soon as this week (green model).
It is quite rare for wedges to just keep meandering beyond the point of the vertex and that day will be upon us in a matter of 5 to 6 trading days. A word to the wise: volatility is not dead. It is simply laying a huge trap for the overconfident longs. When this baby finally arrives it will likely do so with shock and awe because that is what will get the herd moving in the intended direction.
added more to UVXY today, thanks for the update captain. sensing that the herd is about to panic either tomorrow or next week and this time even the fed cannot save them. the 3% crash yesterday on the DAX was a clear sign that even European QE isn't working anymore.
ReplyDeleteThere's no capital and yet they call it capitalism. This collapse is going to be one for the record books IMO. If ever there was an Asian ferry with everyone leaning way over the port rail, it is the global financial markets. I fear there will be lots of casualties when she rolls.
ReplyDelete