[UVXY] update [IBB] [JWN]

At the backlink I put my money on a rising share price for UVXY but today's crappy little 4.78% gain at the close was anything but convincing yet.  While the red path would create the most satisfying wave count, it would also likely extend past the end of the wedge vertex and that is not usual.  So my primary path is green but I still just don't see any real conviction buying of stock crash insurance yet.  I would have thought that a 1.64% drop in $COMPX would elicit more of an upward move in UVXY than we saw.  Maybe it's the calm before the storm.  Either way we will have our answer in just a few short trading days.  I'm using a fairly tight stop of just 2% from today's close to bail on half of my UVXY.

One of the reasons I am betting on UVXY is that one of my canaries in the market fear coal mine has been breaking down.  See the chart of IBB below.

Likewise there has been some selling in Norsstrom's but nothing that resembles anything more than a healthy pullback at this point.  For all we know at this point, the move down could still be an a-b-c retracement.  But again, I think not.  I think the panic will materialize soon.  Look at the aftermarket collapse of LinkedIn (LNKD) today.  You sit through a bull market only to have the trap door open under your feet for a 20+% overnight loss and at some point you have to stop believing that there is anything like fundamental valuation of markets.  It's all just one big casino and so many people have no idea how crazily the money managers are gambling with their money.