[USLV] big picture

Nobody can predict the future but understanding the likely paths that the herd historically take can increase your chances of predicting future herd movements tremendously.

Since 2011, M+M have been in a clear downward trend.  In a rising money supply and with the understanding that the fed would not and even could not "allow" assets to fall in value, everyone rushed into paper assets: stocks, bonds, etc. Now, metals are in the dirt and miners are on life support.  We know this trend will reverse but we don't know when.

I think it is more correct to say that we don't know when it will bottom but we do know when the breakout has occurred and that all roads eventually lead back up to the level of the prior 4th wave @ $60.

This wave can either be counted as a normal motive series or it can be counted as a falling wedge so far.  Wedges generally either end mid channel or they kill the lower rail on wave 5 and quite often throw it under.  Again, nobody can say which it will be but we can say with high confidence that when the top rail is broken out that the very least we should expect is a trip back up to the level of the prior 4th.   That would be a triple from here and even more if this now chooses a rapid collapse the bottom rail.

I think that the green path is the most likely for various reasons including the copper chart.  But should you take a swipe at it only to find that a lower low occurs, be careful not to believe that a trip to the lower rail is impossible.

Conversely you can just sit there, wait until the top rail is broken out of and then get in.  The will not maximize your profits but it will minimize your risk.  This IS going back up to $60 folks and it will likely happen before 18 months have transpired from the time that it actually does bottom.