[$TNX.X] update

Rates did move up again today but not with the character that I would expect from a 3rd of 1 of 3.  What we were left with could easily count as an a-b-c.  In other words, the red path is possible and should not be a surprise if it happened because this is wave 2 up after a long period of selling and so the market is not likely sure where it wants to take rates.  We should know early on tomorrow if red or blue path will be taken.  Any transition below $20.50 means that the red path odds go up exponentially.

Folks, in a long interview today of Bill Gross he again mentioned several times that interest rates just can't go up right now because it would be so bad for everyone.  But one wave two completes and wave 3 begins to move up in leaps and bounds then it will likely force Yellen's hand.  She would leave rates low forever if she could but the bond vigilantes are tired of lending money for negative real interest.  Cash and gold might not pay interest but if treasuries don't pay much of interest either then what would you rather have?