[MSFT] update

MSFT is nearing the level of the first wave down coming out of November.  The retracement so far has been 38.2 and the waves could possibly be counted as 5-3-5 due to spikes in the count.  But if it hits that red patch directly above then the markets will have gotten an important boost because the markets won't break down unless the leaders are breaking down crossing back into that region greatly reduces the odds that the recent sell off was something more than an a-b-c retracement.

So while we do see how some retail consumption companies are getting whacked for what seems to me to be little reason (hello Lumber Liquidators!) we really need to see more weakness in leadership stocks in order to continue believing in a negative near term outcome for the markets.