[JNUG] update

In the backlink I presented the model below.  The message was simple and clear: I modeled that we were at or near e of C of 2 and that, while a throw under could occur to finish the falling wedge (WC2), the next move should break both rails, likely back test, and then begin to pick up 3rd wave momentum.



As of Friday, we got the breakout and the back test so I will not be surprised to see a gap up on Monday at the open as shown below.  

If this breaks out on Monday, and odds are now significantly in favor of this kind of move up, the momo players will pile back in very quickly. 

One sign to look for: when TRX begins to catch a strong bid then you know that wave 3 up has arrived to the juniors.  TRX is the weakest of the weak which is more a question of leverage than anything else.  Thus, if people begin to believe in the metals rally TRX will move up more than others in terms of percent because it was bashed down so badly in the first place. 

If you want to play a little money on M+M options but want to be free of the time value decay of them, look for the likes of TRX and treat it as a nonexpiring call option for 50 cents.  If it is eventually going to BK, it will not BK yet.  Not as a result of the A wave and not just before the reversal into the big B wave rally.   There are no percentage winners in the stock market like those which are weak but living while treated as dead.  When they suddenly come back to life, shorts have to compete with new longs to buy the thinly traded shares.  The moves can be dramatic to say the least.
 
If Prechter's "gold to 700" C wave count plays out after B is complete then yes, BK is likely if not guaranteed for a lot of juniors.  But TRX could be $2 or more before B is complete and per this prior post it is also possible that the recent low was in fact WC2.  The B wave is a retracement of the entire 2011 sell off.  This is a very high level B wave, not some 2 or 3 week deal.  Wave B for M+M (if that is indeed what it turns out to be) is expected to consume most of 2015.