[DJIA] update

In the backlink I modeled DJIA easing into the lower rail at the opening bell.  The chart slowly crept down that support line for the remainder of the day.  The fib calculator shows that it actually gapped below the 38.2 (BEARISH!) and then back tested it from below without breaking out (also bearish) before sneaking back down to throw under the lower support rail and kiss the 50 fib from above.  The most bearish thing it could do tomorrow AM would be to a-b-c its way back up to the 38.2, again without being able to break out before turning back down and taking out the 50 with gusto.  This is my primary model based on the closing action today.  While I labeled today's close black 1, I also see that it was formed by a falling wedge which makes me wonder if the real count for that wave is 3 of 1 and not the full 1.  We should know within a day or two.  A big retracement like the one in blue would set the record straight.

Note that I do not see how this retracement is anything but a reversal for several reasons.  First, expanding wedges are common near tops but uncommon pretty much everywhere else.  Next, the wave fell into the region of wave 1 whose peak is marked by the red line.  So this is not a 4th wave for sure.  So I will be looking for a scant recovery tomorrow as shown and then if we get it in 3 waves I will re-enter UVXY.  I must say, for the DJIA having lost 333 points today, nearly 2%, I was surprised that UVXY didn't get more play.  Don't worry, it will.  The market has gotten so used to buy the dippers swooping in at support that it has gotten complacent about buying downside insurance.  This will change rapidly once the moment of recognition hits - a 3rd of 3rd which likely coincides with some news event which everyone will use to justify the downside (even though the same news would have been ignored before.