[$NYA.X] update

In the backlink I provided the model below.



The current snapshot shows that we did get that little top rail kiss from below.  So now we can open a position in UVXY and keep it open as long as the wave does not make it above that top rail in any substantial way.  Yes, it can go up a bit more without ruining the wedge model but not far.  C of 3 should be about the same length as A of 3.  Also, 5 of C should be about the same length as 1 of C.  Both of those conditions are present right now.  Note that the second hump from the left is really not part of the top rail, it is the b of 2 wave.  But it should be a guide for where 3 stops.

 
The conventional wisdom EW count does not see this as a wedge.  They could be right.  I'll need a bit more data to have a stronger opinion.  I can potentially see it both ways but they see it as wave 3 of 5 nearly complete.  Interestingly I am seeing how they operate - always with only one count at a time, hardly even considering the alternatives until they are left with no other choice but to do so.

Well, if the count above is correct it is going to throw everyone.  EWers are expecting a pullback at this point, but only a small one, perhaps 1-2 days long and only back to the level of the prior 4th which is that dip right near the peak.  So IFF this works like I think it might, the dip will be far deeper than they think.  Then, just when they are getting confident in their bearish case, it will hit the bottom of the wedge and reverse one last time into green 5 which would be wc2.  Then, just when they are convinced that a new breakout is upon them, they will cover their shorts and flip long while the chart plunges lower after peaking in WC2.

The count will be easy to follow since there is only one place that a significant throwover or throwunder is allowed during a wedge and that is wave 5.  But if this is a wedge then it would only be wave 3 so it really must reverse in the next day for this model to continue having any chance.  Good money can be made trading UVXY on this information if it turns out to be correct.  If this cannot go any higher than that top line then odds rise rapidly that this model is correct.