Thursday, February 26, 2015

[JNUG] update: buy the dip folks.

In the backlink my model suggested that the 76.4% fib would be support which was, as modeled roughly by the TDAmeritrade retracement tool, at $25.42.  The shares had to bottom there else HUI would bust as a motive wave up and I would turn bearish on M+M.  Turns out that they spiked down to $25.40 and have since put in 5 waves up.

Thus we should expect some kind of 2nd wave retracement now.   It is possible that my count is off by 1 wave and that blue 5 is really blue 3 of an extended 3rd wave so BOLO that possibility as well.  The odds of that being the case rise dramatically if the shares break out of $29 from here.  I sold the top rail breakdown which followed the breakout and am looking for a re-entry point.  But keep in mind that once the 5th wave up is in that wave 2 could be pretty deep vee after such a big pullback as JNUG has seen.

Do not be surprised to see JNUG go ballistic soon folks.  But as usual, approach it with calm, not like a lake bass being tempted with a lure jerking around in front of its nose.  In other words, pull yourself back away from the emotional herding aspect of it.   This is far more difficult than it sounds because our brains are wired for herding behavior but with practice comes expertise.

Stop thinking about how rich you might become if you hit the stock market lottery, etc. and just play the turns like a pro, full of calm, full of understanding that with EW in your pocket you actually have the advantage over most other players out there who are just winging it by gut feel.  They are just hoping to get lucky.  You and I are not counting on luck.  We are counting on the veracity of the Elliott wave principle and our skill and ability to count the waves accurately.  We are counting on our discipline in setting stops and in worrying more about keeping our the money we do have vs taking money from some other poor slob.

If we keep this focus, we will win because there are few of us and many of them to profit from in this zero sum game known as "investing".

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