[INTC] update

In a recent post on Intel, I modeled that the best case finish could be as high as $40.  As it turned out, I count that final red 5 as a short stroke the (failed 5th) otherwise it would have likely risen to the target area.

In any case, this can either be counted as 1-2-3 or a-b-c and right now I cannot say which will win.  A break below that lower orange or blue rail and then a lower low than the early Feb low would mean that this is not a C wave and thus it would probably fall all the way to 431.50 before catching a bid.  But you would want to sell into strength because the bounce would likely be back up here to $33 and then the trap door would open into wave 3 down probably with support in the $28.40 range.

These next few trading days will likely set the tone for Intel and MSFT for the rest of the year.   The play is very simple here: short Intel at today's close of $33.93 and only cover at $34 or higher.  Or a tiny bit more conservatively, wait until the top rail breaks down and then short.  When it breaks down the lower rail withing the blue circle then you have a 2nd confirmation.  In all of this, your initial stop is the recent DDT at $34.