[DJIA] market update

Well today's action did not match my expectations for the primary model, that's for sure.  There is an outside chance that today's close will be treated as WC but the odds appear weak on this front.

In addition, the strength and straightness of the current wave up is putting into great question all models that suggest that the action Jan 22-Jan30 was anything but corrective. 

One model that makes sense here is my original worry, that this was a 4th wave HT.  If this turns out to be the case then I suspect the wave will kiss the top rail, pull back a-b-c (trade-able of course) and then break out to seemingly never ending new highs.  This is not the conventional wisdom model but the conventional model took a beating today.

I'm going to need more data to figure out what is going on here.  That is not something that happens often.  I usually have at least some idea of what could happen but unless it is playing out per above I don't currently know what it could be.

When in doubt, sit it out!!!  Biggest mistake I used to make in the past was to get stuck on a theme like "markets will go down soon" and then keep making bets in that way even though I would get stopped out too many times.  So I have learned one thing and it is if it is a shitty hand, don't play.  Cash is a position!  Plus there is oil and other stuff to play on the pullback.

In any case, like I said, there is still a very small chance that the recent action could be corrective.  I know that the market becomes very tricky near the major turns and shows increased volatility.  We are getting plenty of both of these right now.