Friday, February 27, 2015

[BLDP] update

In the backlink I provided a model that suggested to wait until the 50 fib was hit before taking a position.  I followed my own advice and am now long with a small position at $2.23.  My stop is already in place at $2.17.  I will add to this position during 2 of 3 if 1 of 3 plays out as expected.  For this one I plan to use the breadcrumb stop method.  Bet something with a tight stop and then if the chart plays out per the model, bet more at the next likely EW pullback in the hopes to be in the shares for 3 of 3 with a larger sum than I might normally might commit to this.  The reason this method allows more to be bet is that once I am already up on the first bet I have that as a buffer for gap down reversals on the second.  It is essentially a risk management strategy on a highly volatile small cap stock whose chart suggests a likely next move above $8.40.  Is it guaranteed?  Of course not.  But when you manage risk using the EW principle you can bet much heavier than most people will be willing to and still lose less than most people if the model turns out to be wrong.

The best gamblers at the end of the day are those who manage risk the best.


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