Tuesday, January 13, 2015

[USO] update

Backlink.  We are still on track for a near term bottom on USO.  I am holding RUSL in anticipation of at least a $4-$5 bounce on USO and it could be much higher.  No, oil is not dead.  No, OPEC is not dead.  The crash in USO was well anticipated by my models as I have clearly documented in these pages.  It cannot be argued that the wave model predicted the high probability that oil would collapse like this.  People have short memories for these things which is why I provide charts and backlinks.  Remembering these things can help provide confidence in buying near bottoms (even if I was a couple bucks early on calling a USO bottom).  Those are just the risks of trying to call it in real time and that is why stops must be used, especially during the early portion of the turn.  Risk management is key in playing this bottom fishing game.  I don't know if the blue or the red path will be taken but odds are high that it will be one of them.  When the pink down-sloping line is broken out of it will attract the momo computers to the bid which are certainly watching this in real time.


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