Sunday, January 18, 2015

[TWTR] update

I don't trade Twitter, I just check up on it and comment from time to time.  Here's the backlink which as you will quickly see, has a busted model.  I thought that the a-b-c was looking like it would hold but it clearly broke down into a 5th wave and has now WC'd its way back up to the level of the prior 4th.  So I think 2 of C is done and 3 of C is underway.  Per the model below, we could get a big gap down soon because this is common during the 3rd of 3rd wave and even more common with 3rd of 3rd of C.

The beauty of EW is clearly shown by the model failure of the chart in the backlink.  First, I waited until 3 waves down from a peak had occurred before even thinking about getting bullish.  I assumed incorrectly that it was the bottom of a 3 wave pullback.  Almost immediately after I posted, the share climbed 10% to $44.  Had I been trading this, my initial stops would have been just below my buy point.  As it went up I would have either left my stops tight or moved them up with the rising wave (depending on my confidence level with the count). But under no circumstance would I have hung on if we broke down to a lower low.  My loss would have been counted in pennies or I could have even made a few percent had I followed this up with stops as I often do.

I'll say it again, the real power of EW is helping to cut losses short by knowing when a model is bust.  Cut your losses short enough times and let your profits run enough times and before long you are up big time in your trading acct.
























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