Wednesday, January 21, 2015

[TRX] update

JNUG is rocking the house and GLD has clearly broken out.  Looks like EWI wins this round over Avi.  What that suggests is that the recent bottom in GLD really was only A of C.   Thus we could be working on the EWI B wave.  But if this is the case then the GLD rally, while in need of a pullback soon, is not over yet IMO.  The reason is that the smallest and weakest players have not caught a bid yet.  That means that the market is not sure if GLD is really going to rally hard from here or whether it is a head fake.  So the buyers have not come for the likes of TRX folks, but they will.  They will. 

When TRX begins to move up it will likely be fast and hard just like DRD did over the past 2 weeks.  The momo players will have bid up everything that has the word "gold" the name and then will will come sniffing around the tier 2 and tier 3 miners.  I have seen this many times before.  The marginal players don't get their fair share of the early rally as all the money goes into the "safer" risk plays.  But at some point, generally near the end of the rally, the shorts give up and throw in the towel and then the momo longs see the move and pile in suddenly.  The short term moves can be dramatic in these cases.  Just keep in mind that the weak players are weak players for a reason and if EWI is right about a C wave coming in gold then many of the smallest juniors will not survive it.  So let the likes of TRX and DRD give you the short term pop but put some trailing stops on them to avoid giving it all back.


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