Saturday, January 31, 2015

[SLV] update

At first blush the SLV chart looks like the recent pullback busted the model.  It looks a lot like an a-b-c right now but a good count exists and I suspect that as more bullish waves play out we will see more of a motive looking count form.

There are three most interesting features of this chart.  First, the recent pullback came to the level of the prior 4th as shown by the pink rectangle.  Second, the recent pullback did not fall into the range of wave 1 up even though it fell into the range of red b.  Those who don't know how to count an expanded flat correction will be fooled by this.  Had wave 4 gone below the green line by just one penny, the model would be bust.  Third, silver is only working on wave 5 of 1 while the miners appear to be working on wave 3.  This timing divergence is something to keep an eye on.  It could turn out that the wave which just finished was actually 1 of C (EWI thinks all of what is happening right now in M+M is a huge multimonth sucker's bounce which will go well under the recent lows after this big a-b-c is printed).




















This cannot go below $16 for any period of time at all without busting this model.  Look for an AM pullback as shown and then an upward reversal.

Note: the previous post I did on SLV was some time ago and you can read it here.  As you can see, my call back then on wave 1 up seems to have been correct and then we got a doozy of a pullback to form wave 2.

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