Looking for a 2015 collapse in McDonald's shares. [MCD]

I have posted before about MCD being little more than a global real estate play in the past and how globalization helped them grow whereas the coming deflation will bring with it more closed borders, more attacks on international corporations in order to protect locally owned corporations, etc.  I think their whole business model is flawed and that their food is overpriced for what you get.  I cannot recall the last time I ate there.

But I just looked at their chart and I noticed something very ugly about it: a clear triangle in the middle of two equally sized waves.  That screams "a-b-c" and not 1-2-3-4-5.  A motive wave might just pull back to the 38.2 or maybe to the 50 or 61.8% fib and still be in a bull market but the best an a-b-c can do at this point is form an even larger multiyear triangle.  That would imply an a-b-c move to the bottom channel which would tend to be at about $30.  But a triangle that large is rare and so I believe that MCD has a better than even chance of turning into a mania chart - a full retracement to below where it started this run at $12 in 2003.

I already own some of the 2016 $70 puts that I paid $1.05 for.  I think it might be time to get some Jan 2017 50's.  The spread is ridiculous of course but if I can score some for .55 then I think I will do just that. Just a few thousand bucks at risk here with two full years in which nothing at all can go wrong lest I get paid.  Yeah, I like the sound of those odds.  I'll probably wait for a bit more confirmation before pulling the trigger since the value of these do not move as easily as shorter term options in any case.

50.0 Put

0.39

0.87

0.75