Important [UUP] update

Here is the backlink that shows nothing more than a failed model.  Of course, the failure was obvious which is why I went dark on UUP for several weeks now.  I had to wait for some new reasonable model to present itself and I think we have a very good candidate now.  My W3 construct was essential in me coming up with this wave count.  I don't just like this model, I love it.  Expect to see the dollar pull back soon to at least the level of the prior 4th but it could also be much, much lower based on my larger world view.  The bullishness on the dollar is at 30 year extremes which suggests to me that this is not just the first wave of a larger dollar bull.  This is C wave type sentiment and it is happening after oil is hitting multiyear lows from the peak and gold and silver are in the same boat.

Long term theories aside, the odds massively favor the dollar to begin a significant pullback within the next few days.  

Yes it could continue to extend.  Yes, we could still be working on W3 of 5 as shown below.  These longer term models always have room for variation and should never be taken too literally.  Short term models are what matter because they should in fact be taken literally.  That is what I mean when I say "drive for show, putt for dough".  It's the short term chart moves that will make you money and stop you out of dangerous losses.  The longer term charts are mainly for getting your bearings.

In fact, the extension can even become more extreme if we got something like the model below.  Any of these would be valid EW moves.  I only bother to point this out because I sometimes provide models that turn out to go wrong and some people use this to reinforce their built in bias that charting doesn't work at all when the truth is that it works but not like a digital crystal ball.  If it did then everyone would be a billionaire.  If they read my blog for understanding instead of hoping to be spoon fed nirvana then they would know that the EW rules will not be violated but neither will the progress towards them always be obvious.  They would understand the concept of model triggers and know in advance that we should expect some nontrivial percentage - 30% for a good EW practitioner - to go bust.  This is not a problem as long as stops are set accordingly.

The lazy mind (i.e. the typical buy and holder mentality) will be quickly turned off by the element of chaos that exists in forming the model and most people are lazy minded.  They will also try to convince themselves that nobody has a better view of things than they do lest they be left with the horror of horror for any individual member of a herding species: that they might be getting left behind somehow.  If you put 1 person in a firing squad and tell him that he is about to die alone, that individual will freak out.  But put 100 people in there and tell them that they are not alone and most will accept their fate with reasonable calm simply in the knowledge that they are not alone.

This is just the human condition, not a slam on people.  It's genetic and in fact it is a benefit in many ways.  People with minds that are too active can sometimes be taken down a rat hole by stuff that doesn't really matter.  The herd is the way it is for good reason.