[CJES] update

CJES backlink shows that following W3 of 5 I modeled a 4th wave rally before heading down into 5 of 5.  Today's snapshot showed that we did head down and are now somewhere within that 5th of 5 but that it did not rally into C of 4 like I had expected.  Still, the W3 call seems like it held and that is an important thing to note IMO.

The full model below shows the massive shellacking that these leveraged oil plays (20 mn cash vs 345mn debt is leverage even if this is not some options based ETF...).

The expected short covering bounce is coming VERY soon and it should lead to at least a 70-80% rise in the price of these shares over the next 2 months.  That is what the EW model tells me so far.  Look at the alternation between 1 and 2 as well as the parallelism (grey lines).  This is textbook Elliott.

What could go wrong with this model is that the plunge since the completion of the 4th wave HT might just be 1 of (5 of 5  ).  This is not my primary model but it cannot be ruled out.  To the positive side, wave 5 is already longer than wave 1 as it stands right now. 

At the very least it should be safe to begin cost averaging in here.  Remember JNUG folks?  It just seemed like it would go down forever and now it is skyrocketing in percentage terms.  Well CJES has no time value associated with it so you can afford to accumulate over time and hold through whatever additional turbulence might occur here.  The shorts will cover soon (the shares are 8% shorted) and it is going to pump the price of this stock.  The reward/risk is very favorable here.  Again, this does not mean it cannot go lower; it can.  But when it bounces, and it will, the target is going to be $20 (the level of the prior 4th) no matter how low it goes.