XES update

I first posted on the oil and gas equipment ETF (ticker:XES) back in late 2013.  I saw an ending diagonal but at the the time had not formulated my W3C theory (which by the way I just refined in a way that I am going to keep to myself).  In any case, the decline that I was expecting happened, but only 3 waves worth.  That's because it was not a 5th as I had thought but rather W3.   Below is the current chart with deflationary collapse at least half way played out.  The red circle is where the last chart was made so it is clear in hindsight that I was a full wave off back then even if I did have the eventual direction and severity of the pullback correct.

The question here is was this just the A wave of a much deeper deflationary collapse or is this actually countable as an a-b-c?  Short term pullbacks aside, this looks like it has a nice run ahead of it into the target range.  The question is whether it will happen as an 3 wave a-b-c retracement or as a 5 wave motive move.