What could go wrong with short term bearish forecast.

Conventional EW logic is that the DJIA/$COMPX peak is now in (again).  OK, maybe it is true.  Then again, trust but verify.  One way to verify is to look at other indices. 

One which I think is of particular interest is the Russell 2000 since weakness in small caps is being cited as evidence of peak in large caps.  The Russell 2000 has not made higher highs during the last 6 weeks. Its high was ~1213 in back in July 2014.

While I can see another valid count in here, this is the one that I think could throw a lot of traders.  They will be getting their bear on and then all of a sudden and yet again the markets seem to be propped up by the invisible hand.  I have found that what hurts most traders is not even having the concept that something other than the expected can happen.  That is why I constantly like to look at both sides of the issue.

So let's all BOLO for the quick dip below the lower rail followed by the 5 wave move to a new recent high (although not necessarily a new all time high). into blue 5.  If I see this I will take it as the last dying gasp of the Ponzi pumped markets.  I would sell all UVXY on a break and then re-take of that lower rail as shown by the red model below.  Then, buy again on the the break down back into the the channel.

One hint that this is really the top would be if UVXY did an inclining double bottom back down to $18 during the blue 5 wave.