The expected volatility abounds on JNUG

I cautioned many times well before the fact that we should expect volatility near the turn on JNUG because this is how you shake out the weak hands.  We have to keep the following things in mind:

• I chose to focus on JNUG exactly because of its volatility.  Where else can you double or triple or 10x your bet in such a short time frame.
• Volatility is not nearly so bad if you have good technical reasons for entering the trade which then lead you to the intelligent use of stops.  Getting stopped out and then having JNUG fall another 5 or 10% is not a bad thing!
• The wild volatility and increased trading volume are usually signs of a significant trend change.
• If you are playing JNUG you are not in it for 10 or 20 percent.  You are in it for 500 or 1000%.  So taking even 15-20% losses over a series of getting stopped out trying to find the bottom should not be unexpected; it is the cost of playing this game.  If this does not settle well with you then you need to not be in JNUG.  There is always GDXJ which has no time value aspect to it you know.  Also, you don't have to go all in on every trade.  If your nerves are killing you, bet smaller and average up once the movement back up is established and your first bet is deep in the green.

I decided to hold JNUG overnight with a 1/3 position.  If it goes lower tomorrow while UUP traces out the last 4-5 cents of its upward move then so be it. 

I count the recent GLD peak of $117.35 to have been the 5th wave of an expanding wedge which formed off the early November low.  When the expanding wedge is in this position it counts as wave 1 up.  Since then we got a rapid pullback which did not make it down to the normal retracement level of 38.2 or 50 or 61.8.  Any of those can be in store for us tomorrow or Thursday.  But the wave down so far could also count as a-b-c with the potential for a large opening gap tomorrow.  Either way, the model will out itself very soon as being good or bad.   It's now getting to the point where I need to just hang onto something golden as well and a 1/3 position makes sense to me for that.  IF they can take it lower it should happen over just a few days time and that will allow me to scoop up even more.  

Volatility aside, we are much nearer to a bottom than to a top IMO.  All I can say is that in order to earn our JNUG payday they are not going to make it easy on us.