Larger wave count for 10 year treasury rates ($TNX.X)

A reader comment to this post asked about interest rate projections for wave 3 of TNX.  The following model shows both that projection as well as my alternate count for treasuries.  EWI has not presented the alternate count shown below but I notice of late that they come up with a count and then stick to it until far after they should have more publicly considered and presented alternates.

The red line is the primary model for now.  It uses the black numbering.  So, wave 5 down was mid 2012, wave 1 up was late 2013, 2 down finished in Q4 2014 and now currently tracing out 3 up.  There are things I like about this model but it is not confirmed until it negates the potential 4th wave HT model that I also show but in blue numbers and lines.

If the chart finds resistance around the 3% level then I will get concerned that the conventional wisdom model is wrong.  The confirmation of this would be a break above that top line and then a plunge back down into the channel as shown by the blue line.  If that occurs then it is a clear indicator that the real 5th and final wave is playing out because HT are always penultimate and this is a very large pattern, not some transient day trade flash in the pan.

In any case, both of these models suggest rapidly increasing interest rates in the near term.