JNUG volume peaked and is now declining

Volume changes precede trend changes and the trend for miners has been down (to say the least).  The count is looking ripe for a bottom here.

 But what kind of bottom will it really be?  Back in October of 2011 I declared that PV solar was in a "greater depression".  I also mentioned that they were front runners.  They would decline first and recover first (which they have certainly done since then).   At the time, deflation wasn't even mentioned in the main stream media.  Now we have gasoline prices in Texas that are hitting $2.20-$2.40 for regular even at the name brand filling stations.



While all of that might be interesting, I want to reprint the deflationary chart that EWI sent to subscribers back then.  It's kind of scary.  As you can see, that chart was printed in Sept 2011.  The exact peak was in April 2011, just as stated by their model.  Today the CCI is at 459, still well above their A wave target of 380.  But the time frame for a bounce is about right and they have counted 5 waves down in gold.  This is where their "wave A in gold just completed" thesis.

 
























 As you can see from the chart below, gold is currently trading like a commodity.  Gold's decline began when commodities began to decline:

So if EWI is correct, we should get a significant bounce in commodities through 2015 and into early 2016 as the B wave (probably to include gold and silver) before an even bigger sell off hits and we see the C wave collapse around 2020.   This would coincide with their price target for gold as low as $700.  I think the collapse comes a bit earlier than that: more like 2018. 

Avi Gilbert made a case that gold already bottomed and I am currently in that camp.  But as you can see, EWI clearly made a good bearish call on commodities.  If we get into this next wave up and it smells like a recovery bounce then I will of course bail on all my paper gold and silver and perhaps even short it in order to hedge my physical which is never going to be sold until I retire.