But so far, the chart looks like a correction of the motive wave down on Friday and the red path is my primary count for now. IF this can turn into 5 waves up then I could change my count quickly on this but for now I'm still under the view that Avi's count will prevail.
All of this of course is mainly just trying to grub the last dollar out of a very volatile situation. Smart traders who cannot watch the chart each day will dollar cost average into something(s) golden over the next month.
Howdy Captain!
ReplyDeleteComparing GLD to GDXJ, thoughts on why the junior gold miner's relative lack of strength compared to GLD on today's action?
GLD is currently above the top trend line of the rising wedge on the daily chart, GDXJ is still stuck within the gap from Friday.
-TJ
Also observe the classic H&S pattern on JDST daily. Perhaps a JDST close below $14 today increases the likelyhood of the blue path playing out on JNUG chart above.
ReplyDelete- TJ
Great question TJ. This is bearish non-confirmation IMO and points to Avi's model being right. Time will tell but this is where the odds point to.
ReplyDeleteIt should be of concern right now to the miners that the gold plunge has reversed itself yet their share prices have not... Maybe that will change but so far the move up today looks like an a-b-c correction from Friday's massive collapse.
Your models suggest that gaps are filled as if a leveraged etf behave like a stocks. Shouldn't you be looking at the indexes that these efts follow rather than the etfs themselves? Do EW not take into account decay?
ReplyDeleteGap theory is outside of EW principle but I think they are filled just as often in the leveraged version of the ETF as in the underlying asset.
ReplyDeleteAs for EW taking into account the time decay value, yes it does. The resulting chart can thus be different between the leveraged version and the real thing (and over time they clearly diverage) but the chart of the leveraged issue still follows EW rules.
This is a similar question to whether someone should use extended trading data in their EW counts. As I tried to explain in the "space time" post on silver (search for those keywords), it doesn't matter which you use. Both will result in valid charts even if they look somewhat different.
This is the fractal nature of the universe at play on many levels.