GE update

The GE crunch time post indicated that a move above the top rail would be bullish.  To be sure, I was really hoping for the chart to hang at the 38.2% fib.  But I have not given up on the DJIA move up being a vee second yet and the GE chart is more evidence of why we should defer this decision until such time as the DJIA breaks to a new high.

The recent rally in the DJIA came to within just 120 points of a new high.  GE on the other hand just moved up to the 50 fib which also happens to be at the level of the prior 4th wave.  I generally do not expect a 2nd wave to break back up above the top rail once the triangle 5th wave up was put in and then the wave moves below the lower rail ion 5 waves as it did.  The norm is to kiss the lower rail from below and then head down.

Still, wave 1 could have been powerful enough to puncture and soften up the upper and lower rail supports levels to the downside while not having enough power to stay down.  If this move back up is a 3 wave retracement then it should stop right here or maybe go to the 61.8% fib and then come crashing back down through the triangle channel never to pop back up above it again.  As with the DJIA, we need nearly immediate downward action in order to support this model view.  If this model is correct, the 3rd wave down in GE will be upon us next week.  It really seems counter-intuitive that this could happen on Christmas week.  We won't have to wait long to figure this one out. 

Note: UVXY and TVIX have been assuming that the DJIA sell off will pick up again next week. They were not down as much as one would have thought.  But if we don't begin the sell off very soon next week these ETFs will pick up speed to the down side as gamblers give up on the notion of an immediate sell off.  In other words, they will make up for lost time.  So don't be shy about selling them if the charts tell you to do so.  There will be a next time.  There is always a next time.  The charts are a continuum, always presenting waves of risk and opportunity.  So avoid risk and capitalize on opportunity.  Only play the good hands and fold the rest quickly.  Cut your losses short while they are small losses and let your profits run when you have been dealt a nice hand.