GDXJ and USO update

USO did an intraday reversal today but GDXJ/JNUG still closed red even though well off their lows.  Call me crazy but this doesn't seem like 3rd wave action here.  The jury is still out but I went ahead and bailed as soon as it touch the top rail of that rising wedge marked wc?  If it breaks out to a higher high, especially if done on a gap up, then the blue path is likely in play and I'm back in but right now I need some more evidence that this is not forming some kind of massive falling wedge per the red path.

Again, I think it is just too early to forget about Avi's $105 GLD target and the action looks more corrective than motive.  I'm not emotionally attached here which is why I don't mind trading out if I smell resistance.  But when this bounces it is going to be a major bounce and the level of the prior 4th is $200.  That technical level does not change if JNUG goes lower.  It is fixed in the chart.  That's how oversold the juniors got.  $200 might sound like a lot but its only a 10 bagger from current levels and we are basically dealing with liquid options here.  10x gains are not uncommon with options if you get the timing right.

Bottom line, GDXJ and JNUG need to show me something before I want to get back in.  They need to show me either a throwunder of the lower rail or they need to break out but right now they are in no man's land and its a coin toss which way they go.

Having said that, gold and oil will likely trade fairly in synch near the bottom here and I do not count USO as having completed 5 down yet. Having said that, I've been modeling USO down into the $19.50 range for a few posts now including yesterday's post whose model was followed pretty well today.  I did move red 4 in the model but it is essentially saying that we are 1-2 days from a very solid bottom in oil.   So if the thesis holds that oil and gold will bottom fairly close together then perhaps the miners just do a 38.2 fib pullback from here and then break out the top orange rail of the wedge above with conviction.  That would be a buying signal for the juniors.