Don't count Avi's $105 GLD target out yet, part 2.

Here is the back link to the first post on this thread.  The question I am trying to answer is how could Avi's GLD target of $105 actually turn out to be correct.  The real question is how do M+M go one wave lower from here and then have that be a very, very important bottom.

The SLV chart model below might give some insight.  The reason I like this chart is because the wild choppiness of the past month needs to be explained somehow in the count.  The move from early Nov to late Nov is not a 5 wave count IMO even though the conventional wisdom says it is.  And then the flash crash down and then back up right to the rising trend line again seems like what we should get from some kind of triangle or expanding wedge.  Then the move back down with sideways chop looks like a corrective B wave of a 3 wave move and so pink 4 should find support if the chart goes this way.  Finally, a big move to pink 5 that will take the chart to the level of the prior 4th (blue 4) before slamming the metals again to a lower low.

This would absolutely kill most traders both short and long and that is what the markets strive to do near the turns.  But if this is going to happen and if we can see it coming then the profits will be fantastic because we now have enough data points to predict support and resistance.

In this model, the first thing you look for is a break down of that triangle that is playing out right now.  That is a sell signal and then you can either short the metals or just stay on the sidelines looking for that lower rail hit.  If that lower rail hits and holds then you absolutely want to be in JNUG for the rid up to red 4.  Remember, JNUG more than doubled from its November low of $2.83 up to its $6.10 peak and the move from pink 4 in SLV to pink 5 / red 4 would be even bigger (assuming that JNUG tracks the metal prices pretty well).  If that move up to red 4 were to happen in a 3 wave move then you would have good evidence that it is going to reverse back down to red 5 and that would be a very nice move in JDST.

Of course at that point it would be JNUG all the way for a massive wild ride upwards to the $30 or $40 range.

I'm not saying that all this must happen but with this viable model below we know what signs to look for.  Obviously, a break out of the top rail without first kissing the lower rail would invalidate this model as would a break below the lower rail instead of a bounce at pink 4 below.  Don't think this model can't happen.  The wild chop we are seeing here is actually getting a bit difficult to count in some way other than a wedge like this.