Don't count Avi out yet.

Avi's GLD target of $105 might still happen despite the fact that conventional EW wisdom counts gold as having put in a bottom.  Trust me, it is not that easy to discern between a 4th of 3rd and a 4th of 5th.  So we always have to be wary that bottom (or top) calls might be off by 1 wave.  Trust but verify and all that rot.

Having said that, it's pretty clear to me that the previous peak to $6 in JNUG does not look motive.  It looks like a motive wave, then a B wave "wad" of sideways crap and then another motive wave (i.e. 5-3-5 or a-b-c) before stalling and reversing.  And since the reversal took place at the top rail I have to apply a falling wedge count to it. That implies a trip to the bottom rail as shown.

When I do that (red), a $2 bottom price falls out of the model.  Well all I can say is bring it on.  Note however that falling wedges can also finish up in the middle of the channel and that is exactly where we are right now.  So a break out of the top rail (blue) means the wedge failed its 5th wave and the very least we should see at that point is $6 again (the level of the prior 4th). 

Note that I still stand behind my statement that everyone should be buying something golden right now.  The next wave down, if it comes at all, will come and go in a flash.  In other words, it is useful to real time traders but not so much to the average "investor" (I really hate that word.  The right word is gambler).  People who just want to begin buying something for a long term hold need to avoid JNUG and look at GDX or GDXJ. 

Of course any paper asset has risks IMO so there really is no substitute for holding a good amount of your retirement money in gold and silver bullion. Since I have such an intense lack of trust for my government, my entire retirement fund is in physical metals.  I want to save it, not gamble it.  My trading account is not considered retirement savings.  It's gambling money.